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advisers austan goolsbee on how the u.s. can avoid falling off the fiscal cliff. plus we'll take you live to tokyo with japan hit by election fever. the yen is falling as a repeated call for bold monetary easing. and we'll be live in new york 5:45 a.m. for a look at the u.s. retail sector. walmart and target getting set to release third quarter numbers. >>> chig that's ruling com uhe nus party has lifted the curtain. the unveiling seals so s xi jins rise. hu has seeded oig all powers and that's gives china's next leader a strong mandate. eunice has more for us this morning. it sounds like a pretty signature consolidation of power under xi. >> definitely is a consolidation of power. he'll get a very strong mandate as you had mentioned to run this country the way that he wants. he gets the three top titles, the most powerful are party chief, president as well as military commander. that is very significant because it allows him to have more control over his own agenda. when he went to meet the press this morning, he was looking very casual, looking a about folksy. when he was youtd lining t
we have been hoping for for four decades now will arrive and the u.s. will serve up more oil than saudi arabia in the year 2020. that according to a new report by people who actually do know the oil business very well. >>> and sex and the ceo. and the collateral damage. how widespread is sex at work? we really want the answer to that question? >>> what should the consequences be. >>> and no hockey. forget about that. no problem. look what the world of auto racing brought us over the weekend. a brawl! another black eye for a sport that corporate america was counting on? no fighting here at cnbc. sue's with me here again. nice to have you here, sue. >> it is great to be here, ty. those "fast money" guys got me all riled up over there. they're having a good time. >>> we're going to take a look at the markets right now. dow jones industrial average has turned into positive territory, not by too much, but hey if you're a bull, we'll take it. the s&p is up two. the nasdaq up almost eight on the trading session. >>> we here at cnbc, as you do, follow the energy sector very closely on "po
saudi arabia? could an abundance of shale oil in the u.s. actually bring about energy independence by the year 2020? we drill for the truth straight ahead. and how rich is rich? the president wants higher taxes for americans earning more than $250,000 a year. is that fair? or should that number actually be $1 million? and could this be the key to resolving the looming fiscal cliff? that and a lot more is still to come on the "closing bell." >>> if a budget is not agreed upon to avoid the fiscal cliff, the average middle class family will pay $2,000 more in taxes. >> that's right. crunch time is upon us. the markets and economy will be held hostage until lawmakers do reach a deal on the fiscal cliff, presumably between now and the end of the year. >> eamon javers is breaking down the plan. over to you. >> just before the break, you and bill were debating whether or not it's too early to start getting sweaty palms about in fiscal cliff problem in washington. as a guy covering capitol hill for almost 20 years, i can tell you it's never too early to panic about what washington might do
timetable. if they don't see that it would be inconsistent with maintaining a aaa rating. the u.s. is on negative outlook. s&p already downgraded. >> i think that we all kind of remember what happened -- i think that the big worry on the left side would be i think listen, nothing happened. interest rates went down again. that's a scare tactic. i'll use a scare tactic. $600 billion in new taxes january 1. that's reality. >> unemployment going back to 9.1 if this happens. that's a number that gets your attention. the "times" does a nice piece about fix the debt group. groups of very large companies trying to weigh in on their own side with ads. i don't know if we have them right now. nike with a mock nike ad that says just fix it. mcdonald's saying i'm fixing it. >> home depot. we can fix it. >> that group raised a lot of money over the last year or so. $30 million, $40 million, more than you might have anticipated to mount this public campaign. >> dave is doing a lot of great things. ceo of honeywell. wants to put aside -- i don't know if he's a democrat or republican. i know he's
economists and business leaders say could send the u.s. economy back into recession. here we have an interesting divide between wall street and washington. wall street seems to believe and you can take a look at the numbers on how the market has acted over the past year. wall street seems to believe that we'll avert this cliff. washington seems to be willing to drive over the cliff. >> i think there's -- i don't want to pick on the tea party per se. you can say if obama would suddenly give in on taxes. what i worry about is there are people who are ideological in the country and more focused on other issues than taxation and money. those people i think are very much out of sync with other people as we discovered last night from the election. they could care less about the fiscal cliff. i think some people want to go over the cliff. >> howard dean last night, sam on "squawk" a couple weeks ago saying maybe it's the best medicine for us is to drive over this thing, go into a recession, provide some bed for growth in the second half of the year. it's a gamble. >> $5 trillion in cuts.
is that the u.s. bankruptcy judge said that the parties have agreed to a medation in the prevention of shutting down hostess. that will likely be monitored by the same judge tomorrow morning at 11 a.m. this is an attempt to avoid a shutdown, even though in today's hearing the hostess brand lawyer said it would be, quote, very hard to recover from this damage even if there were to be an agreement in the near term. still unclear what this actually means for hostess's ability to operate is a going certain but still a positive move and we'll stay tuned to what actually happens tomorrow. >> he's put off the table for now chapter 7 or chapter 11, is that my understanding? he's going to get them to do a deal even though bakers have rejected? >> that's right. an alternative to liquidation for today. he's giving them till tomorrow to say, if quu agree on some terms in the private, the brain trust will be in a room trying to hammer out a deal. if not, more options will be on the table. at least for the next 24 hours it looks like liquidation is off the table. but just for this very short term. also the q
ratings agencies going do, is there another downgrade of u.s. debt looming here and what would that do to financial markets. i want to sort of tell you a little bit about why you might be able to stop worrying and start to love these ratings agencies. the reason is the timeline of any downgrade that might come down the pike. starting with moody's. they're saying their rating on u.s. debt is likely to be maintained until the outlook of negotiations is clear. now fitch, they're likely to review their rating of u.s. debt in late 2013. late 2013. standard & poors poor's is saying it is a 1 in 3 chance of a downgrade over the coming two years. what do the ratings agencies want to see in order to avoid those kinds of downgrades? what they're saying is laid out specifically in their reports. moody's saying they want to see specific policies that produce a stabilization. they want a downward federal debt to gdp trend. fitch says they want an agreement on med yum term deficit reduction in 2013. standard and poor's is saying a medium term fiscal plan toward reducing general government debt. if y
, this is fascinating. the fiscal cliff issue is a reason for many markets to move in the u.s. it's also big reason in europe and as it overlays several months going back to june with dow jones industrial average, you can see that our market was impacted more by the election but both charts are highly correlated and it's the fact that we are talking potential solutions to our fiscal cliff. melissa lee, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. just a note here, we're waiting for intel to begin trading again. a delayed open because of news that ceo will be retiring in may. we're awaiting that opening trade. 9:45 eastern time is our latest indication. meantime, will we see a massive correction even if there is a fiscal cliff deal? that's what david shulman is saying. find out why the senior economist is making such a bearish call. brewing job creation. what the folks at sam adams are doing to get food and beverage entrepreneurs a lift. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] introducing the new dell xps 12. part of a whole new line of tablets from dell. it's changing the conversation. ♪ well, havi
time in nearly a decade and the u.s. underperforming. any doubt now that rivals are stealing share? >> retailers like macy's finally quantifying the effect of hurricane sandy. walmart kicking off black friday earlier than ever. we start this morning with the markets looking to bounce back from yesterday's selloff and nearly 1313 drop in the dow. europe on wall street's radar after the ecb and bank of england kept key rates unchanged. draghi holding a press conference right now saying he sees economic rekafr ri remaining weak and reforms are crucial to boosting growth potential on top of greece passing an unpopular package of austerity measures on wednesday and necessary for greece to receive another round of international financial aid. china's ruling communist party congress con vealing today in a leadership change. so much to digest overseas, jim. what came out of the ecb is expected. came out of greece seems to be largely expected. but spain still resisting. a bailout. that's trouble. >> i know. every day the crucial -- that's the crucial link. you have to give them the good loa
. china was down. they did have tremendously difficult comparisons. u.s. was also weaker. this was just not a good quarter. >> that's true. >> so ubs goes to neutral and trims estimates and cuts price target from 84 to 73. they say that deceleration is going into q-2. >> yum we're not that crazy about. chipotle. panera is a standout. this has been a terrific group. it lost its luster. entire quick serve contingent has become a place that people are worried about with the exception of highest value. panera. it's a decent stock. >> what's also surprising about what young came out with last month is they were talking about china. they weren't overly cautious about china. at the same time we've been getting better and better data points when it comes to china. economic data has been in fact turning. we haven't seen the stock market in china join and now we're not seeing it in yum. yum had once been the big multinational china play. if yum can't make it work, what other companies will we start to look at? will we look at nike or another multinational with a decent amount of growth from sales
cities but a warning we may head into a recession next year if the u.s. and europe don't solve their fiscal messes. right now the dow industrials a built of a breather down 21 points. >>> meanwhile, 34 days to the fiscal cliff. will a deal be done in time? today, president obama meets with small business leaders to make his case for the possibility of higher taxes ahead. our washington correspondent, john harwood, is here with the very latest. hi, john. >> reporter: hi, tyler. you know, everybody is staking out public positions and trying to drive public opinion their way. the president's been doing that all week. he is doing that with his meeting at 2:30 this afternoon with small business leaders from around the country. he is later going to travel to pennsylvania to make his case publicly, part of what he is saying is that if you adopt his plan on the extension of the bush tax cuts that is for the middle class and not for people at the top that almost every small business owner is going to get a tax cut as a result of that. and republicans are staking out their own position t
's going on in defense. also, regardless of the fiscal cliff there's cuts. the u.s. government is the world's biggest buyer of software associated with the running of any kind of government. that's another kind of corollary here. a big comment from a lot of people in the defense industry about that yesterday. i think they're the first company to come out and make realistic expectations of what will happen in the next couple of years. back to you. >> okay. thank you. dave cote is the head of the curve on all of this. let's shift to bonds and dollar. rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. rick? >> thank you, jim. everyone is excited about good housing numbers. everybody but the fixed income market. everybody but the equity market. i know there's an hp issue here. however, let's look at the charts. let's put up a two-day chart of tens. clearly you can see we're up about a basis point on the day. if you look on the right side of the chart and look around 8:30 eastern, you can't pick out that we had a good housing number. if you really switch this around a bit, you look at the shorter mature
. this isn't issue number one for the u.s. economic recovery has been unsatisfying. that's one area where wall street is hoping that's the way it would go under a romney president and probably will go that way. >> what about taxes? let's go through the two plans on taxes. this is one of the more important yishdz for wall street, whether it's capital gains taxes, dividend taxes, ordinary income. let's define each side here. todd? >> well, look, romney's been very -- he wants a tax-friendly environment, maria. he's been vocal about that. i mean, that's just the culture of the gop. but then these guys are the odd couple. you have president obama who clearly is talking about higher taxes for the upper class and also thinking, have you to look at those other taxes, health care taxes, for example, that will impact the middle class. you have a romney presidency, you can only assume we have will have a cut in taxes but we need to resolve this fiscal cliff issue. it's not just resolving the fiscal cliff, it's also a long-term plan up. don't want to have to go through this every 12 months, talk abo
not only surprises the street with a beat but says the u.s. enterprise business is showing signs of improvement. >>> and abercrombie silences the shorts. >> the president is scheduled to meet with a dozen ceos this afternoon to hear their concerns about looming tax increases and spending cuts. 73% of participants in a "wall street journal" ceo council conference said the fiscal cliff is their primary concern. goldman chairman and ceo lloyd blankfein talking about the importance of avoiding the fiscal cliff. he writes there's more than a trillion dollars of cash that is sitting on the balance sheets of u.s. nonfinancial companies with certainty about tax rates, companies will increase their capital expenditures currently at anemic levels contributing to a virtuous cycle of jobs and growth." if there was a disagreement as to whether this is becoming a mainstream story. story of "usa today," a giant cliff and inside a chart of how it will affect people. this is getting real. >> the editor of "usa today" is the single best print journalist going today. he understands what the pulse i
signs of recovery in if the housing market. jim, 4.2 on global comps. 4.3 in the u.s. frank referring to what he calls a healing in the u.s. housing market. >> he's remarkable. he's correctly been negative when it was right to be negative. he's now positive. i was most concerned that this company would have a big dip right here because there's a lot of companies that are reporting that the last few weeks have been bad because of sappndy. didn't skip a beat. stock was down after a series of headlines that misinterpreted the charge. this one could be off to the races. >> what's interesting about home depot, they didn't outline sandy impact because it would be the pull forward in terms of sales in preparation for the hurricane but the books did close prior to sandy so full impact of sandy won't be felt. color expected on the conference call but that could be a key driver going into the last quarter of the year. metrics on the quarter were good. best ticket growth in four years in terms of ticket size. average ticket 54.50. up 2.9% year on year. even below the surface the numbers were rea
world. very selectivity. >> where are you finding them? >> u.s.-based companies. i'm looking for companies whose primary operations are in the u.s. as opposed to emerging markets xhshgs is how i felt for the last few years. i think sectors such as pharma, specialty and big pharma, i think reit sector is very interesting because they can take advantage of the low treasury rates, and i think in the tech space there are a few opportunities but very selective to a handful of companies. >> i'm going to look at you here, joe. bellwether stocks and what they say about the nature of the market. years ago ibm was the bellwether stock. for years general electric, our former parent company, was the bellwether. now apple is with this huge rally today. i know you're a little skeptical about what this rally's employ tod -- about today. but do you follow it? >> i think everybody will agree on the cause but it's the longevity is where i take issue. apple will remain a proxy just because it has, obviously, enormous cash hoard. people are talking about what the dividend will look like. is that
. the jones act states that only u.s. flagships can carry goods from one u.s. port to another. now it is suspended non-u.s. flagships can also help bring petroleum products to areas where they are needed. of course it will take a while still for long gasoline lines to get shorter. for days now drivers throughout the new york area have had a very hard time getting gasoline. lines are sometimes half a mile long. >>> bertha coombs is on a tug in the harbor right now. that's going to be instrumental in getting more gasoline. >>> but first, kate kelly has more on the port situation in bayonne, new jersey. kate? >> reporter: thanks so much, michelle. we're here right in new york harbor where things today are slowly coming back to life after nearly a week in which this harbor was closed to marine vessels coming in and out. yesterday the coast guard opened this harbor for the first time in nearly a week. the port of new york and new jersey to boats with a special aim in mind, bringing gasoline and diesel to the city for much needed replenishment of empty fuel stations. there was an unflux
time, 2:00 p.m. eastern time here in the u.s. the deal announced by the egyptian leader, mohamed morsi, and secretary of state hillary clinton. it was later confirmed by israeli president benjamin netanyahu. comes just hours after a bomb blew up on a bus in the heart of tel aviv. dozens were injured. so far no claim of responsibility but hamas called it a blessed event. within the last few hours, israeli air strikes continued in gaza. this is video of secondary explosions when an hamas weapons depot was hit. michelle caruso-cabrera, our chief foreign correspondent is watching reaction at the nyse. michelle? >> that pushed the dow to the highs of the session. the announcement of the cease-fire got us another 25 points. we have come off the highs, 12,839 is where the dow stands right now, higher by more than 50 points, .4%. president obama reportedly just spoke with israel's prime minister benjamin netanyahu. john harwood joins us now. john, what can you tell us? the white house had a lot at stake here by sending hillary clinton to try to get this resolved. >> reporter: absolutely. and t
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eight years of the weakest growth in u.s. history. so, he needs a deal so that the next four years are better than the last four years. >> we'll see. obviously, still the opening days of this process. charlie, the fed chairman in new york yesterday referring to these talks, reiterating how important it is they get done. he coined the term, fiscal cliff, "the washington post" today says. also adds that the evans rule is an area they continue to look into. fallout today from what he said yesterday? >> ilgt bit but that will happen. the market will be going up and down on small indicators. is john boehner smiling or frowning today? we'll have a lot of volatility for the next two or three months because i do think it's going to be two or three months. i think this is going to go into january. i think close to a 50% chance we'll go over the fiscal cliff temporarily. the market won't react well to that so it's going to be very, very bumpy couple of months here. >> that said, seasonally, i was told not too long ago, the period between thanksgiving week and december 3rd, the past 20 years
epperson at the nymex. u.s. jobs data sent gold prices sharply lower, below $1,700 an ounce. the first time we've seen gold this low since september 7th. we did see a lot of stocks go under way as we got the jobs data. oil prices are slightly lower, the stronger dollar pressuring oil prices as well as several e refineries still shut here along the east coast due to hurricane sandy and gasoline futures up slightly but the national average keeps coming down, $3.50, down 8 cents from a week ago, down 28 cents in the month. back to you, carl. >> thanks so much, sharon epperson. >>> the coast guard opening the port of new york and new jersey on a restricted basis allowing the backlog of barges allowing gasoline and fuel into the area. how soon might we see in the areas affected by sandy? good morning, kate. >> reporter: good morning, carl. i just returned from the dockses behind me where dry dock work ers are hoping to get themselves ready for new ships to be repaired as early as monday. they have a waterfront view of what's going on in the port of new york and new jersey which was just reopene
in the u.s. right now? >> i think you have to look at it a couple different ways. number one is sustainability piece on fuel and foreign oil. electrification will play a major role in the industry whether it is pure or assist like we have in lacrosse and impala here and malibu. widely different applications depending on budget, fuel economy and efficiency. we'll offer a lot of those different alternatives here. the spark we're excited about because this is really -- we're going to really go hard in places like california, austin, oregon, where sustainability is part of the real culture and the thread of the way people live. when you look at the spark and you look at what the performance of a car is, we haven't announced the final range because we're not done certifying it but it will be one of the largest range vehicles and torque is more than a ferrari. >> but the skeptic will look at this and say not that you're supposed to comment on the leaf from a competitor standpoint but you look at the leaf and others and people say is there a market for electric vehicles in the u.s.?
, jonathan gall of chief u.s. equity strategists at u.p.s. what's t -- ubs? >> all day long we've been asking when is the market going to care about this fiscal cliff? the answer is right now. i think what's more important than even looking at the stock market down 2%, it is a look at what happens in the bond market today where yields are falling. the market is telling you that you have a big growth problem because of this cliff ahead of us. >> jonathan, we're going to come back with you in the second half of the hour and talk a little bit more about the fiscal cliff and other things. >>> now there is europe. the president of the ecb making some comments today that put markets on edge across the world. check out the european exchanges. we've got down, down, and down. if we can check them out, we would. wouldn't we? yes, we would. >>> there is one of the reasons why. the new austerity measures being voted upon in greece. i guess most of that is taking place, michelle caruso-cabrera, our chief international correspondent, after the close of the markets. but it is a rough day for equities and a
, change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 75% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. >>> we are going to look at last-minute stock place for your portfolio new obama millionaires house, do they stack up against gop presidents? >>> and a once we know who will be the president the next four years will we finally solve the fiscal cliff? if not, you won't believe what it will cost you. get back to power lunch. >>> the voters are heading to the poll, with the election behind us tomorrow, will we see a pop either way because of some of the uncertainty removed from the market or not? your massive this morning, you had interesting statistics and you said this market looks like '08 all over again what way? >> traditionally, election
prices here in the u.s. have basically erased this week's losses because of the gains that we're seeing currently in the oil complex. we're also hearing reports about iraqi enjoy saying that arabs should use oil to press israel over gaza. those headlines helping to cause this bid in the oil complex. in the gold market, we've seen steady declines over the last several sessions and now a little bit of stabilization in the gold market. there are concerns based on the world gold council report about demand particularly out of china. we've seen the cme lower margins for gold and silver so that may have an impact on the trading activity from here. carl, back to you at the white house. >> all right. thanks so much. in a half hour from now the president will hold key meeting with top congressional leaders on solving the fiscal cliff. we'll be over this crit aleveic event. both sides of the aisle will be covered. "squawk on the street" is coming right back. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 this morning, i'm going to trade in hong kong. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 after that, it's on to germany. tdd#: 1-800-345-255
energy future, now. at u.s. trust, our expertise extends well beyond investment advice and research analysis. it includes proprietary offerings like our eldercare program, which helps provide for those who came before you. and our financial empowerment program, which helps prepare those who come next. resources like these have made us the number-one trust company. that's why generations of families have come to us to help build their own legacies. >>> we don't want you to bet the country. we want you to fix the country. and we had a number of productive meetings in the past couple days. the white house with the leadership of both the senate and the house, diverse groups of house members -- >> that is maya mcginnis, who i almost always want to call maya angelou for some reason. but it is not. it is maya mcginnis, one of the organizers of fix the debt, the campaign that's organized some 60 ceos, heads of non-profits, academics and others to come up on capitol hill today to talk about solutions to the fiscal cliff problem. i'm joined now by john carney of cnbc.com, bob pisani. we'll li
that the q & a session with the u.s. attorney for the southern district has just begun. their prepared comments just finished. we heard from both berrera and s.e.c. enforcement chief rob kuzami as well as april brooks of the fbi. trying to use this case, tyler, very much as a warning shot, essentially saying if you are considering doing insider trading or cheating in any way, think better of t one of berr a berrera's best, most memorable comments is if you are going to pursue ill got gains the only place you may be able to spend your profits is at the prison come mistary. they talk about the unlevel playing field created allegedly when the hedge fund in question at the behest of this defendant, a matthew mar tomy marks who was arrested this morning, essentially traded out of pharmaceutical companies they had amassed positions in because they got early information about a drug trial that had not gone well, resulting ultimately in these quarter billion in profits. one thing absent from this commentary was any detail hot quote unquote hedge fund owner was mention noticed federal complain
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